The Congressional Budget Office announced this month their estimate effects on the American health care system and the possible cost for the federal government if the Republican health bill ,”The American Health Care Act” would be implemented.
- $337 Billion reduction in the deficit for the next decade. This is due to decreased governmental spending on the subsidies to individuals to buy health insurance and lower payments to states for the Medicaid programs. It reflects also decreased revenue from the repeal of the taxes imposed by the Affordable Care Act to pay for new benefits.
- 24 Million more people uninsured in the next decade. CBO expect that the number of uninsured will start to increase quickly in 2018. They estimating already for 2018 that 14 million more will be uninsured and estimate that in “2016, 52 million people would be uninsured .”
- In 2018 they are estimating 15 to 20 percent premium increase in health insurance. This would be caused by the elimination of the tax penalty for not carrying health insurance. People who did not have health coverage and than want to to buy health coverage will have to pay a 30 % increase in premium for one year. CBO estimates that the premium overall will drop estimate 10 percent by 2026, as health insurance for younger people will be more affordable and more younger people will buy health coverage. However for older people the premium will substantial increase as the age band is going back to a 5:1 ratio versus under ACA a 3:1 ratio.
- 880 Billion drop in federal Medicaid spending over the decade. 95 % of people who are getting Medicaid though the health law’s expansion (from 100 % to 138% FPL) would loose that enhanced federal funding. 14 million fewer Medicaid enrollees’ by 2016 . These projection includes people who are currently eligible and would loose coverage as they not qualify anymore with the reduced FPL standards.
The only question remains what will happen with so many more uninsured Americans? How do they get their health care taken care off? We learned during the ACA time that preventive care will in the future reduce health care cost. How can we make sure that preventive care will be available to Americans. Running to the Emergency Room, which than all taxpayers have to pay, cannot be the solution.